基于VAR模型的广东省土地利用碳排放影响因素研究

VAR Analysis on Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions from Land Use in Guangdong

【目的】分析广东省土地利用碳排放的影响因素,为广东省碳排放管理提供一定的科学依据。【方法】基于广东省1996—2017年的土地利用现状及社会经济统计数据,构建VAR(向量自回归模型),通过格兰杰因果分析、脉冲响应和方差分解,对广东省土地利用碳排放影响因素进行定量分析。【结果】近20年来,广东省土地利用碳排放整体上呈上升趋势;人均GDP,土地利用强度和能源强度与土地利用碳排放呈正相关,土地利用结构和产业结构与土地利用碳排放呈负相关;影响因子贡献率由大到小分别为:土地利用强度>产业结构>能源强度>人均GDP>土地利用结构。【结论】调整产业结构,推动能源结构转变,优化土地利用结构是目前广东省实现碳减排的关键。

【Objective】Factors that affected the carbon emissions from land use in Guangdong Province were analyzed for improved environmental management.【Methods】Based on the 1996-2017 statistics,a vector autoregression(VAR)model was constructed for the carbon emissions in Guangdong.Using Granger causality analysis,impulse response,and variance decomposition,the impact of land uses on the carbon emission in the province was quantitatively analyzed.【Results】In the past two decades,the overall carbon emission from varied land uses in the province was on an upward trend.The per capita GDP,land use intensity,and energy intensity positively,but the structures of land use and industry negatively,correlated with the carbon emission.The contribution rates of those factor ranked by magnitude were land use intensity>industrial structure>energy intensity>per capita GDP>land use structure.【Conclusion】It appeared that fostering transformation on energy structure and optimizing structure of land uses were the key maneuvers the province needs to consider in order to realize substantial reduction on carbon emission.