政策因素影响下的中国绿色全要素生产率增长研究--碳达峰目标下的仿真模拟

Influence of Policy Factors on China's Green Total Factor Productivity Growth:Simulation Under the Emission Target

绿色发展是我国经济长期高质量发展的必然选择,绿色全要素生产率是绿色发展质量的核心衡量指标,提高绿色全要素生产率是解决经济发展与资源环境生态问题的关键.为识别“3060”气候目标下政策因素对我国绿色发展质量增长的驱动作用与机理机制,本文开展了面向2030年的中国绿色发展政策仿真模拟,测算了碳达峰目标约束下各情景对应的绿色全要素生产率增长水平.研究发现:我国绿色全要素生产率表现出波动上升的态势,自2019年开始进入稳定增长阶段;单一政策情景中,产业转型升级政策对绿色全要素生产率的提高作用最为明显;组合政策情景中,产业与科技、产业与环境双驱动模式下的绿色全要素生产率进步最快,但产业与科技政策组合在长期具有更强的促进作用.

Green development is the inevitable choice for the long-term and high-quality development of the Chinese economy,of which the green total factor productivity is the core measure.Improving green total factor productivity is the key to solving economic development and resource environmental ecological problems.To identify the driving policy factors on the growth of China's green development quality under the“3060”climate goal,this paper carries out simulations of China's green development policy under the emission peak target and calculates the green total factor productivity growth rate under corresponding scenarios.The results show that:1)China's green total factor productivity shows a rising trend with slight fluctuation and has entered a stable growth stage since 2019.2)Under the single policy scenarios,the industrial transformation and upgrading policy has the greatest effects on the improvement of green total factor productivity.3)Among the combined policy scenarios,the green total factor productivity under the dual-drive mode of industry and technology,industry and environment have both made the fastest progress,but the former has a stronger role in promoting in the long run.