IPCC AR6解读之海洋热浪的变化及其对海洋生态系统的影响与应对

The Changes of Marine Heatwaves and Impacts on Marine Ecosystems and Related Responses in IPCC AR6

IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)基于最新的科学研究成果、详实的证据和多元的方法全面更新了对海洋热浪事件过去以及未来变化的认知并基于观测、实验室研究等对其影响和适应进行了系统的评估。人类活动排放温室气体导致的全球变暖使海洋和海岸带生态系统暴露在数千年来前所未有的状况下,海洋持续变暖,2011-2020年全球海洋表层溫度相对于1850-1900年平均值升高0.88℃。自20世纪1980年代以来,海洋热浪频率翻了一倍,强度更强,持续时间更久。预估结果表明海洋热浪将更加频繁,相对于1995-2014年,2081-2100年全球海洋热浪的频率在低排放情景(SSP1-2.6)下将增加2~9倍,在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下将增加4~18倍,变化最大的海城位于热带和北极。海洋热浪的强度、频率和持续时间的增加将加剧对海洋和沿海生态系统的影响,在某些情况下,会导致物种灭绝、栖息地崩溃或超过生态临界点。这些认识再次凸显了适应和应对海洋气候变化风险的紧迫性。

Based on the latest scientific research results,detailed evidence and diverse methods,the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)comprehensively updated the understanding of the past and future changes,the impacts and adaptations of marine heatwaves.The global warming caused by the emission of greenhouse gases by human activities has exposed the oceans and coastal ecosystems to conditions unprecedented in thousands of years.The oceans continue to warm.At the ocean surface,temperature has on average increased hy 0.88℃ from 1850-1900 to 2011-2020.Since the 1980s,marine heatwaves have approximately doubled in frequency,becoming more intense and longer.The projected results indicate that marine heatwaves will become more frequent.Compared with 1995-2014,the frequency of global marine heatwaves in 2081-2100 will increase hy 4[2~9]times(SSP1-2.6)and 8[3~15]times(SSP5-8.5),with the largest changes occurring in tropical ocean and the Arctic.The increase in the intensity,frequency and duration of marine heatwaves will aggravate the impact on marine and coastal ecosystems,and in some cases will lead to species extinction,habitat collapse or exceeding ecological critical points.These findings again raise the necessity and urgency of ajdapt and address risk of marine climate change.