利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星探测黄河流域水储量能力及极端气候发生的可能性

Using GRACE/GRACE-FO Gravity Satellite to Detect the Water Storage Capacity and the Possibility of Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin

基于2004~2021年GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据反演黄河流域陆地水储量时空变化,并构建干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型,对黄河流域的极端气候现象进行分析研究。结果表明,2004~2021年黄河流域的陆地水储量以0.56 cm/a的速度减少,具有明显的季节周期性特征,在夏季和秋季呈盈余状态,春季和冬季呈亏损状态;干旱指数模型监测到期间黄河流域发生极度干旱事件22次、重度干旱事件37次,干旱事件范围涵盖整个黄河流域;洪水因子模型探测到黄河流域共发生洪水事件118次,多出现在夏季和秋季雨水较为丰沛的时候,期间黄河流域陆地水储量能力较弱,降雨量增大。利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据构建的干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型探测的气象结果与实际观测结果较为符合,能真实反映黄河流域发生的极端气候,可为极端气候研究提供有利工具。

Based on GRACE/GRACE-FO gravity satellite data from 2004-2021,we invert the spatial and temporal changes of terrestrial water storage in the Yellow river basin and construct both a drought index model and a flood factor model to analyze and study the extreme climate phenomena in the Yellow river basin.The results show that the terrestrial water storage in the Yellow river basin decreased at a rate of 0.56 cm/a during 2004 to 2021 considering cyclical seasonal characteristics,showing a surplus in summer and autumn and a deficit in spring and winter.The drought index model monitored 22 extreme droughts and 37 severe droughts in the Yellow river basin,and the scope of drought events covered the entire Yellow river basin.The flood factor model detected 118 flood events in the Yellow river basin,with floods mostly occurring in summer and autumn when rainfall was more abundant,during which the capacity of terrestrial water storage of the Yellow river basin was weaker.The meteorological results detected by the drought index model and flood factor model constructed with GRACE/GRACE-FO gravity satellite data are consistent with actual physical observations,reflecting the climactic conditions occurring in the Yellow river basin and providing a favorable tool for the study of extreme climate.