基于DPSIR模型的“四水四定”高质量发展协调性评价

Evaluation and Application of“Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources”High⁃Quality Development Coordination Based on DPSIR Model

坚持“以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产”(简称“四水四定”),强化水资源的刚性约束作用,是以水资源供需两端的相对平衡支撑经济社会高质量协调发展的前提。为科学判断一个地区是否符合“四水四定”的要求,基于DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)模型构建了包含24个评价指标的“四水四定”协调性评价指标体系和评价模型,并提出了包含非常协调、协调、基本协调、不协调和极不协调等5个等级的评价等级及相应的评价标准。选取济南市作为研究区进行了协调性评价,结果表明:驱动力和状态处于不协调等级,压力和影响处于基本协调等级,响应处于协调等级;2017—2020年综合得分在63~66范围内,属于基本协调等级,评价结果符合实际情况。

Adhering to the“defining scopes of city,land,population and production with water”(hereinafter referred to as“basing four as⁃pects on water resources”)and strengthening the rigid restraint of water resources are the premise that the relative balance between the sup⁃ply and demand of water resources supporting the high⁃quality coordinated development of economic society.In order to scientifically judge whether a region meets the requirements of“basing four aspects on water resources”,this paper built the coordination evaluation index sys⁃tem and evaluation model of“basing four aspects on water resources”including 24 evaluation indexes based on DPSIR(Driving force⁃Pres⁃sure⁃State⁃Impact⁃Response)model.And it also put forward five evaluation grades including very coordination,coordination,basic coordina⁃tion,incoordination and extremely incoordination and corresponding evaluation criteria.Jinan was selected as a typical area for coordination e⁃valuation,the driving force and state of the evaluation were at the level of incoordination,the pressure and impact were at the level of basic coordination and the response was at the level of coordination.The comprehensive score in 2017-2020 was in the range of 63-66,which be⁃longed to the level of basic coordination and the evaluation results were in line with the reality.