决策导向型国家安全情报流程的理论依据及构建

Theoretical Basis and Construction of Decision-Oriented National Security Intelligence Process

[研究目的]国家安全情报实践中往往存在情报与决策脱节之处,既有情报理论模型未能妥善兼容决策要素。因此,有必要澄清情报模型的基础理论问题,合理确定决策在情报流程中应有的体系性位置,推动国家安全情报实践的科学开展。[研究方法]运用历史分析、文献分析、系统分析方法,梳理情报周期的经验性问题与规范性问题,剖析各类改进模型演进的一般趋势与基本差异,归纳国家安全决策的基本特征,形成模型构建的情报理论依据与决策理论依据,在系统方法论指引下将决策导入情报流程。[研究结论]初步提出侧重规范性功能、定位于概念论立场并以国家安全为适用领域的决策导向型情报流程。该模型基于供需协调的改革思路将决策导入情报流程并对流程架构进行系统化改造,关注系统运行的适应性以及本领域决策环境、决策结构与流程、决策情报需求的特殊要求,为调整情报与决策关系提供多维路径。

[Research purpose] There is often some disjunction between intelligence and decision-making in the practice of national security intelligence, and most of the existing theoretical intelligence models fail to properly accommodate decision-making. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify basic theoretical issues of the intelligence model, determine systematic position of decision-making in intelligence process reasonably, and promote scientific development of national security intelligence practice. [Research method] By historical analysis, literature analysis and system analysis, this paper sorts out the empirical and normative problems in intelligence cycle, analyzes the general trends and basic differences in evolution of improved models, summarizes basic characteristics of national security decision-making, forms the theoretical basis of intelligence and decision-making for the model construction, and introduces decision-making into intelligence process under guidance of system methodology. [Research conclusion ] Focusing on normative function, standing in the position of conceptualism and taking national security as special field, a decision-oriented intelligence process in national security was preliminarily proposed. Based on reform idea of supply-demand coordination, the model introduces decision-making into intelligence process and transforms the process architecture systematically. It pays attention to adaptability of system operation and special needs of environment, structure, process, and the special intelligence requirements of decision-making in the field, provides a multidimensional method for adjusting relationship between intelligence and decision-making.