印度在卡吉尔冲突中的情报预警失误及启示——基于情报预警流程视角的考察

Study on the Causes and Enlightenment of the Indian Intelligence Early Warning Failures in Kargil Conflict——Based on the Perspective of Intelligence Early Warning Process

[研究目的]研究印度在1999年印巴卡吉尔冲突中出现的情报预警失误,总结相关启示,为加强我边境军事危机预警工作提供一定的参考与借鉴。[研究方法]利用印度政府出台的调查报告以及原印度陆军高官撰写的相关著述等资料,从预警流程视角系统地分析印度在威胁感知、态势监控、预警评估等阶段存在的情报预警问题。[研究结果]印度的情报预警失误启示我们,应当加强情报计划与指导,在情报用户与情报机构之间搭建沟通桥梁;综合运用多种侦察力量,加强对边境地区的情报搜集;不断优化情报共享机制,着力做好危机预控;注重对情报分析人才的培养,提升情报分析的准确度。

[Research purpose]Through the analysis of Indian intelligence early warning failures in the 1999 Kargil conflict, this paper summarizes some relevant information and tries to provide references for strengthening China’s intelligence work on military crises in border areas.[Research method]Utilizing the investigation report issued by the Indian government and the relevant writings written by the former senior officials of the Indian Army and other materials, this paper systematically analyzes the Indian problems in the stages of threat perception, situation monitoring, and early warning assessment from the perspective of the early warning process.[Research conclusion]Indian intelligence early warning failures tell us that we should strengthen intelligence planning and guidance to build a communication bridge between intelligence users and intelligence agencies;improve intelligence gathering in border areas by integrating multiple reconnaissance forces;optimize the intelligence sharing mechanism to prevent and control crises;pay attention to developing intelligence talents so as to improve the accuracy of intelligence analysis.