复杂舆论场景中信息内容风险研究

Research on Information Content Risk in Complex Public Opinion Scenes

[研究目的]挖掘复杂舆论场景中的信息内容风险点并进行等级评估,进而设计预警方案和防控系统,为现实工作提供可用工具和方法参考。[研究方法]从信息内容表征切入,借助等级全息模型(HHM)和风险专家调查列举法提取风险点,采取扎根理论的方法构建风险评估概念模型,基于此运用AHP确定指标权重系数,依托风险测度方程划分预警等级标准,并设计相应的风险防控系统。[研究结论]复杂舆论场景中信息内容风险点主要有:境内外信息不对等催生意识形态失控风险、负面内容过载引发社会思潮泛滥风险、意见领袖偏向蛊惑加剧社会心理极化风险、流量争夺与内卷致使双空间违法违规风险、“把关人”权责失守加重媒介失信风险。释放风险(W_(B_(1))=45.272%)对风险指数R的影响最大,反应风险(W_(B_(3))=27.399%)和流动风险(W_(B_(2))=20.182%)次之,残余风险(W_(B_(4))=7.147%)最小。可按轻度(0<R≤55)、警示(56<R≤70)、严重(71<R≤85)、危险(86<R≤100)四个等级进行风险预警,同时构建风险弱信号发现与释放者智能管理系统、面向受众的自查自省自改自纠系统、风险信息热度监测与峰值报警系统、基于多主体协同的联动管控系统来进行风险防控。后继研究要继续动态、全面挖掘风险点,探索新方法更客观地抓取22个末级质化指标的原始数据,缩小感知风险指数与实际风险、外化风险指数之间的差异。

[Research purpose]Excavating information content risk points in complex public opinion scenes and evaluate them,so early warning programs and prevention-control systems are designed to provide tools and methodological references for control work.[Research method]Starting from the characteristics of information content in complex public opinion scenes,this paper extracts risk points with the help of the hierarchical holographic model and expert investigation method,adopt the grounded theory to build a risk assessment conceptual model,using AHP to determine the index weight coefficients,relying on the risk measurement equation to divide early warning level standard,and designing the risk prevention and control system.[Research conclusion]The risk points of information content in complex public opinion scenes are as follows:the risk of ideology losing control due to the inequality between domestic and foreign information,the risk of social thinking proliferation due to excessive negative content,the risk of social psychological polarization exacerbated by biased and confusing opinion leaders,the risk of dual space violations due to traffic competition,and the risk of media breach of trust exacerbated by the lack of authority and responsibility of"gatekeepers".Release risk(45.272%)has the greatest impact on risk outcomes,followed by reaction risk(27.399%)and flow risk(20.182%),and residual risk(7.147%)has the least.Risk warning can be carried out according to four grades:mild(0<R≤55),warning(56<R≤70),serious(71<R≤85),and dangerous(86<R≤100),while building an automated analysis and security protection system for weak signals of risk,an audience-oriented self-investigation and self-correction system,a risk information heat monitoring and peak alarm system,and a mutual assistance control system based on multi-agent cooperation are built to prevent and control risks.The subsequent study should continue to mine risk points and capture the original data of the 22 end-level qualitative indicators more objectively to narrow the differences between the perceived risk index,the actual risk index and externalized risk index.