世界舞台中心角色变换与百年变局:历史逻辑与发展要求

Changing Centers of the World Stage and Profound Changes Unseen in a Century:Historical Logic and Development Requirements

要准确把握百年变局的基本特点与发展要求,必须深刻认识自世界历史形成以来世界舞台中心角色变化的基本历程、基本轨迹与基本逻辑。纵观18世纪60年代至1914年间英国崛起与称霸、一战至今美国崛起与称霸的基本轨迹,可得出一个基本结论,即决定一个国家综合实力的主要因素,除了经济与军事实力、文化“软实力”外,还包括教育、人才、科技因素,也包括政府管理效能、政治领导力因素。综合考量上述因素,可列出一个具象化的综合国力方程式,即综合国力=(教育+人才)×(科技+产业)×(政府效能+军事实力+政治领导力)×(传统文化+现代文明)。新时代要统筹好“两个大局”,必须站在世界历史的高度审视当今世界发展趋势和面临的重大问题,保持战略定力,准确识变、科学应变、主动求变。其中的关键,就在于坚持与加强党的全面领导,进一步建设教育强国、人才强国、科技强国。

In order to accurately understand the basic features and development requirements of profound changes unseen in a century,we must have a deep understanding of the basic history,basic trajectory and basic logic of the changing centers of the world stage since the formation of world history.Looking at the basic trajectory of the rise of Britain between the 1860s and 1914,and the rise of the United States from World War I to the present,we can draw a conclusion that the main determinants of a country’s comprehensive strength,in addition to economic and military power and cultural"soft power",also include education,talents,science and technology,as well as the effectiveness of public governance and political leadership.Considering the above factors,we can set out a concrete equation of comprehensive national strength,that is,comprehensive national strength=(education+talents)×(technology+industry)×(government’s effectiveness+military strength+political leadership)×(traditional culture+modern civilization).In order to coordinate the international and domestic situations in the new era,it is necessary to examine the development trend and major issues facing the world today from the perspective of world history,maintain strategic determination,accurately understand changes,scientifically adapt to and actively seek changes.The key lies in adhering to and strengthening the Party’s overall leadership,and greater efforts to build the country into a leader in education,talent and science and technology.