北极航道开通对我国经济潜在增长影响的效应分析

The Effect Analysis of the Opening of the Arctic Waterway on China's Potential Economic Growth

为分析北极航道开通对我国经济的潜在影响,通过搜集北极航道沿线主要国家与我国的贸易数据,建立VAR模型,结合格兰杰(Granger)因果检验和脉冲响应函数以及方差分解的方法进行实证分析。结果表明,在滞后期为1期情况下,我国对北极航道沿线国家的出口贸易是我国经济增长的Granger原因;北极航道开通,进出口贸易会对不同时期经济增长产生冲击效应,经济增长对来自出口贸易冲击后,短期受到显著的正向作用,但是进口贸易冲击正向效应不明显。

In order to analyze the impact of the opening of the Arctic waterway on China's potential economy,a VAR model is established by collecting the trade data between major countries along the Arctic waterway and China,and empirical analysis is carried out by combining Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition methods.The results show that China's export trade to countries along the Arctic waterway is the Granger cause of China's economic growth when the lag period is phase 1;with the opening of the Arctic waterway,import and export trade will have an impact on economic growth in different periods,and economic growth after the export trade shock,it has a significant positive effect in the short term,but the positive effect of the import trade shock is not obvious.