基于灰色模糊综合评价法的基础设施BT项目回购风险研究

The Research on Repurchase Risks of Infrastructure BT Project Based on Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

从BT项目投资方的角度出发,以BT项目回购风险为研究对象,对影响BT项目回购的风险因素进行识别,构建了较全面的评价指标体系,并利用改进的层次分析法确定指标权重,采用模糊数学和灰色系统理论相结合的方法建立了BT项目回购风险评价模型。最后通过实例表明,该方法能够对BT项目回购风险进行较为准确的评价,从而可为投资承包企业的决策提供参考。

From the perspective of BT project investor,regard the repurchase risk as the research object,to identify the risk factors of BT project repurchase,builds a comprehensive evaluation system,and uses the improved AHP to determine the index weight,then establishes the evaluation model of the BT project repurchase risk bases on the fuzzy mathematics and the theory of grey system.Finally,indicates through the example that this method can carry out a more accurate appraisal for the repurchase risk of BT project,which can provide a reliable reference for the BT project investor.