基于事件树的高层建筑火灾风险评估

Fire Risk Assessment of High-rise Buildings Based on Event Tree Analysis

基于事件树分析方法,构建了风险容忍度确定、事件树构建、火灾场景发生概率计算、火灾损失后果计算、火灾风险评估等五个步骤的高层建筑事件树火灾风险评估方法。将高层建筑事件树火灾风险评估方法应用于某高层建筑,得出总火灾风险等价货币值为4449.53万元、生命风险为4.574×10^(-4)人·年^(-1),对比可接受火灾风险水平,可知该建筑火灾风险远大于可接受风险水平,需要采取有效安全措施。

This paper presents a high-rise building fire risk assessment method based on event tree analysis.This method mainly focuses on the followings:determining risk tolerance level,creating a tree diagram,calculating the probability of fire scenarios and fire damage,risk assessment.Such method was applied to a high-rise building to assess its fire risk.The results show that the total value of fire risk is RMB 44.4953 million,the life risk is 4.574×10^(-4) person·year^(-1).Comparatively speaking,the fire risk of this building is much higher than the acceptable risk level,therefore effective safety measures should be taken.