中国人口结构失衡及其调整战略——基于第七次全国人口普查数据的分析

China′s Population Structure Imbalance and Its Adjustment Strategy——Analysis Based on the Data of the Seventh National Census

第七次全国人口普查结果表明,我国人口在总量仍然偏多的情况下结构发生了明显的失衡,其突出表现为:男女性别结构失衡;年龄结构失衡;区域结构失衡;城乡结构失衡;物质资料生产与再生产严重错位,不相适应。这些都给经济社会发展带来严重负面影响。其形成原因是多方面的,既有理论认识上的偏误,也有体制机制方面的弊端;既有政策方面的原因,也有宏观管控缺失的原因。人口结构的调整与优化是一个复杂的系统工程,人口生产与再生产的特殊性决定它的调整要比物质资料生产与再生产的结构调整要艰难得多。人口生产与再生产动态均衡发展并与物质资料生产与再生产要求相适应,这是社会主义人口发展规律的根本要求,也是中国人口结构调整的预期目标,必须依此目标从理论、观念、体制机制、政策、社会习俗等方面综合发力,强力调整人口结构,使之动态均衡化、合理化。

The results of the seventh national census show that China′s population structure is obviously unbalanced when the total population is still too large. The outstanding performances are as following:unbalanced gender structure;unbalanced age structure;unbalanced regional structure,and unbalanced urban and rural structure.The material production and reproduction are seriously misaligned and incompatible. All these have brought a seriously negative impact on the nation′s economic and social development. The reasons for its formation are multifaceted,including biases in theoretical understanding,shortcomings in institutional mechanisms,policy reasons and lack of macro-control. The adjustment and optimization of population structure is a complex system engineering. The particularity of population production and reproduction determines that its adjustment is much more difficult than the structural adjustment of material production and reproduction. The dynamic and balanced development of population production and reproduction and the adaptation to the requirements of material production and reproduction are the fundamental requirements of the socialist population development law and the expected goal of China′s population structure adjustment. We will make comprehensive efforts in terms of theories,ideas,institutional mechanisms,policies,social customs,and etc. to vigorously adjust the population structure and make it dynamically balanced and rationalized.