风险输入视角下金融稳定对宏观经济影响研究

Research on the Impact of Financial Stability on Macroeconomics from the Perspective of Risk Input

利用2000—2020年年度数据,从金融机构、金融市场、国内宏观经济和国际输入性风险四个维度选取31个基础指标,本研究运用主成分分析法构建我国金融稳定综合指数(CFSCI),进一步探讨金融稳定与宏观经济之间的关联影响。研究结果表明:2008年国际金融危机之后,我国金融稳定水平总体呈现波动上升态势,但外部输入性风险对我国金融稳定产生明显冲击;分析表明,金融稳定性上升能够降低经济波动,使得经济增长更加平稳;相比之下,宏观经济的运行对金融稳定影响不显著。

Based on the annual data from 2000 to 2020, this paper selects 31 basic indicators from four dimensions of financial institutions, financial markets, domestic macro-economic and international imported risks to construct China Financial Stability Composite Index(CFSCI), and further discusses the correlation between financial stability and macro-economic impact. The results show that the overall level of financial stability in China shows a rising trend of fluctuation, but the external input risk has a significant impact on financial stability. Further analysis shows that the rising financial stability can reduce economic fluctuations and make economic growth more stable. In contrast, the operation of macro-economy has no significant impact on financial stability.