2022上半年天然橡胶市场形势回顾和后期展望

Natural Rubber Market Situation in the First Half of 2022 and Its Outlook

新冠肺炎疫情、俄乌冲突、美联储加息等事件持续冲击全球经济,大宗商品价格波动加剧。2022年上半年天然橡胶价格连续下跌,5月底,随着稳经济一揽子政策尤其是汽车消费支持政策落地实施,6月国内天然橡胶价格小幅上涨,产业运行形势向好发展,近期天然橡胶价格有震荡上行的可能性,但总体趋势偏弱。针对天然橡胶原料价格波动大、胶园缺乏管理导致橡胶树抗病性差以及病虫害防治能力不强等问题,提出加强原料市场信息化建设、建立健全天然橡胶生产社会化服务体系以及完善适应气候变化管理体系建设等建议。

The COVID-19 pandemic,the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve continue to impact the global economy,and commodities price volatility has intensified.In the first half of 2022,the price of natural rubber fell continuously.At the end of May,with the implementation of the package policy of stabilizing the economy,especially the support policy for automobile consumption,the price of domestic natural rubber rose slightly in June,and the overall situation of rubber industry was improved.It was expected that the price of natural rubber is more likely to rise,but the overall rally is weak.In view of the large fluctuations in the price of natural rubber raw materials,the poor disease resistance of rubber trees caused by the lack of management of rubber plantations,and the weak ability to control diseases and insect pests,it was proposed to strengthen the informatization construction of raw material markets,establish and improve the socialized service system for natural rubber production,and improve the construction of a management system for adapting to climate change.