欧亚经济联盟经济一体化效果测度及评价

Measurement and Evaluation of Economic Integration Effect of Eurasian Economic Union

欧亚地区是俄美欧争夺的战略要地,与中国丝绸之路经济带建设密切相关。欧亚经济联盟是目前欧亚地区最活跃的一体化组织。它是由俄罗斯主导的经济合作组织,却被普遍认为具有浓厚的政治色彩。欧亚经济联盟自成立以来取得了一些成绩,对其成果进行经济学测度发现,成员国选择入盟确有贸易和投资方面的实际需要,同时联盟规则也完全有利于俄谋求强国地位的战略意图。未来,欧亚经济联盟将长期存在,但可能将始终维持低效运转,即经济一体化深度发展局限性较强,空间扩展有限,且发展进度和节奏将明显低于预期水平。俄乌冲突给欧亚经济联盟成员国带来的经济冲击将使得未受制裁国家不断衡量自身的收益和风险,而俄罗斯将比以往更加需要联盟的支持。在西方全方位制裁下,俄罗斯与欧盟之间从能源贸易到金融投资彻底割裂的风险骤升,导致欧亚经济联盟未来发展可能走向封闭,前景不乐观。

The Eurasian Economic Union is currently the most active integration organizationin Eurasia.It is an economic cooperation organization dominated by Russia,but it isgenerally believed to have a strong political color.The Eurasian Economic Union hasmade some achievements since its establishment.Through economic measurement of itsachievements,it is found that there is a real need for member countries to choose to jointhe Union in terms of trade and investment.At the same time,the rules of the Union arealso fully conducive to Russia’s strategic intention to seek the status of a powerfulcountry.In the future,the Eurasian Economic Union will exist for a long time,but itmay always maintain inefficient operation,that is,the economic integration has stronglimitations in depth development,limited space expansion,and the developmentprogress and pace will be significantly lower than expected.The economic impact of theRussia-Ukraine conflict on the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union will enable them to constantly measure their own benefits and risks,and Russia will needthe support of the Union more than ever.Under the comprehensive western sanctions,the risk of a complete separation between Russia and the EU from energy trade tofinancial investment has risen sharply.The Eurasian Economic Union may move towardsa closed system in the future,and its prospect is not optimistic.