新冠肺炎疫情冲击下中东欧国家的经济韧性:表现、原因和启示

Economic Resilience of Central and Eastern European Countries under the Impact of the COVID-19:Performance,Causes and Enlightenment

塑造经济韧性的路径是多样化的,但任何一条路径都离不开结构性因素。对于新冠肺炎疫情冲击下中东欧国家的经济韧性来说,存在四条强化路径,其中不过多依赖旅游业是各条路径共同的前因条件。此外,较高的数字经济竞争力、多样化的经济结构、较高的技术水平以及不过度融入全球产业链,都是塑造经济韧性的关键因素。而较高的财政缓冲也有助于降低疫情对经济的冲击,提高经济的韧性。本文采用核心变量法,对中东欧16个国家面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击的经济韧性从抵抗力和恢复力两个维度进行测度和衡量,根据测度结果,将这些国家划分到七组情景。在此基础上,结合现有经济韧性相关问题研究成果,以及新冠肺炎疫情冲击中东欧国家经济的机制和渠道,选取六个可能的经济韧性的前因条件变量,采用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)对塑造中东欧国家经济韧性的条件组态进行分析。

The paths for shaping economic resilience are diversified,but none of them can beseparated from structural factors.For the economic resilience of central and EasternEuropean countries under the impact of the COVID-19,there are four strengtheningpaths,of which not relying too much on tourism is the common antecedent condition ofall paths.In addition,higher competitiveness of the digital economy,diversifiedeconomic structure,higher technology level,and not excessive integration into theglobal industrial chain are all key factors in shaping economic resilience.A higher fiscalbuffer will also help reduce the impact of the epidemic on the economy and improve theresilience of the economy.This paper uses the core variable method to measure theeconomic resilience of 16 countries in Central and Eastern Europe facing the impact ofthe COVID-19 from the two dimensions of resistance and resilience.On this basis,incombination with the existing research results on issues related to economic resilienceand the mechanisms and channels of the COVID-19 epidemic impacting the economiesof Central and Eastern European countries,six possible antecedent conditional variablesof economic resilience are selected,and the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysismethod(fsQCA)is used to analyze the conditional configuration of shaping theeconomic resilience of central and Eastern European countries.