农民的选举观念及其类型学特征——基于江西40村七波跟踪数据的分析(1999-2018)

Farmers’ Perception of Election and Its Typological Characteristics——Evidence Based on 7 Waves of Survey Data from 40 Villages in Jiangxi Province(1999—2018)

以持续20年的七波跟踪调查数据,按选举认知、投票取向、功能评价、规则意识与价值支持的五维框架,系统分析农民的选举观念,发现农民具有较强的选举权利认知与家庭本位的选举程序认知,注重德性的“好人”投票取向,对选举功能的评价整体上较为积极,选举规则意识有了显著提升,价值支持则表现出随职级升高而递减的结构特征,但整体支持度在逐步提升。在村民的选举文化类型学方面,疏离型选举文化的受访者比例大幅下降,其曾经的主导地位已让位于被动型选举文化受访者,最具公民特质的参与型选举文化受访者在缓慢增长,占比已至两成左右。这些研究发现,有助于清晰认知基层选举与治理的现实境况与挑战,深化与拓展对于选举、政治文化与基层治理的系统研究,形成基于中国国情的选举文化理论。

Using the data from 7 waves of tracking survey which has lasted for 20 years, we systematically analyze farmers’ perception of election according to a five-dimensional framework which consists of perception of election, voting preference, functional evaluation, awareness of rules, and value support. We discover that farmers have a strong awareness of their rights to election and a full perception of the election procedures which is family-oriented. They have a tendency to vote for “a virtuous person.” They evaluate positively on the function of election, and show a significant increase in the awareness of election rules. Value support, on the other hand, shows a decreasing structure with the increase in rank, but the overall support is gradually increasing. In terms of the topology of villagers’ election culture, the proportion of respondents with a detached election culture has declined significantly, and its once-dominant position has given way to respondents with a passive election culture. The respondents with the most civic-natured electoral culture are slowly growing up to 20%. These findings can help to clearly understand the real situation and challenges of the grassroots elections and governance, deepen and expand the systematic study of elections, political culture, and grassroots governance, and develop a theory of election culture based on China’s national conditions.