中国大豆产业的发展态势、政策演进与趋势展望

Development Trend,Policy Evolution and Trend Prospect of China’s Soybean Industry

振兴大豆产业对保障粮食安全和社会稳定、促进国民经济可持续发展具有重要战略意义。首先分析了大豆产业发展态势,梳理了大豆产业政策演进历程,展望了大豆产业发展趋势并提出政策建议。1978—2020年,中国大豆表现出播种面积波动较大、产量总体增加、进口规模快速攀升的态势;大豆价格政策表现为“临时收储政策—目标价格政策—生产者补贴政策”的演进历程,且市场化程度不断提升,大豆贸易政策基本表现出进口约束逐步放宽的单一演进特征;未来,大豆消费量仍将持续增长,大豆生产综合竞争力不断提升、自给率逐步提高,大豆进口规模稳中有增、来源逐步多元化。基于此,实现大豆产业振兴,应抓好大豆稳产保供,完善大豆补贴政策,支持大豆全产业链发展,加强大豆走出去政策支持,全面提升大豆产业综合竞争力。

It is of great strategic significance to revitalize soybean industry so as to ensure food security and social stability as well as promoting sustainable development of national economy.First,the development trend of soybean industry was analyzed,the evolution process of soybean industry policy was sorted out,the trend prospect of soybean industry was forecasted,and policy suggestions were put forward.From 1978 to2020,China’s soybean industry showed a trend of large fluctuation in sown area,overall increase in output and rapid increase in import scale.Soybean price policy showed the evolution of temporary grain reserve purchase policy,agricultural product target price policy and soybean producer subsidy policy,with market degree of soybean improving,while soybean trade policy basically showed the gradual relaxation of import constraints.In the future,soybean consumption will keep growing,comprehensive competitiveness of soybean production and soybean self-sufficiency rate will gradually be improved,and soybean import quantity will remain stable with a slight growth,whose sources will be gradually diversified.Based on this,in order to realize the revitalization of soybean industry,enough attention should be paid to the stability of soybean production and supply,soybean subsidy policies need to be improved,the development of whole soybean industry chain should be supported,policy support of soybean going global should be strengthened,and comprehensive competitiveness of soybean industry should be enhanced.