考虑气候变化因子的变参数Budyko理论及其在赣江流域未来水资源预估的应用

Variable parameter Budyko theory considering climate change factors and its application in water resources prediction of Ganjiang River Basin

水资源长期变化的准确预估对流域未来水资源规划具有重要的战略意义。Budyko水热耦合理论已广泛应用于评估流域未来长期的水资源变化情况,但其无法动态考虑流域下垫面的变化对水资源的影响。结合Budyko水热耦合方程及蒸发互补原理提出了一种可以考虑流域下垫面产流特征变化的流域水资源量预估方法,并结合CMIP6多个气候模式的未来模拟数据,对赣江流域的未来水资源量变化情况进行了预估。主要结果如下:(1)在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,赣江流域的未来下垫面特征发生了较为明显的变化,流域特征参数变小,流域蓄水能力减小;(2)SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5三个情景下赣江流域未来期降水和水资源量相对变化均在10%以内,潜蒸发变化幅度较大,在10%~20%之间。(3)研究所提出的基于Budyko水热耦合方程和蒸发互补原理耦合的流域水资源量模拟方法可在一定程度上考虑流域未来产流特征的变化。

An innovative method of water resources simulation, which considers flow generation characteristics of the watershed, is proposed based on coupling of Budyko theory and evaporation complementary principle. The method is used to predict changes of water resources under climate change based on CMIP6 outputs. The results show that:(1) The future runoff generation characteristics of Ganjiang basin changes significantly and the watershed storage capacity reduces under high emission scenario(SSP5-8.5);(2) The relative changes of precipitation and water resources in the Ganjiang basin in the future period are within 10% under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while the changes of latent evaporation are between 10% and 20%;(3) The method proposed in this study can take into account, to some extent, changes in the future runoff generation characteristics of the watershed.