“干中学”式光伏产业供给侧规制的得与失

The gain and loss of"learning by doing"style supply side regulation in photovoltaic industry

理论界普遍认为我国光伏产业2008-2012年期间暴发的危机与政府不当的产业促进政策有关,但是2013年国务院出台的《关于促进光伏产业健康发展的若干意见》及后续一系列配套措施有效地扭转了产业危机。这是否说明政府能够通过“干中学”提升产业规制能力,促进产业健康发展?为了回答这一问题,本文以新能源汽车企业为对照组,采用双重差分法分析了新一轮产业规制对光伏产业过度投资和创新投入的影响。结果表明改进后的供给侧规制总体上能够显著抑制产业过度投资并促进企业的创新投入,但是也存在着解决老问题引发新问题、产业整体代价过大、民营企业受挫等弊端。政府在实施深度介入式产业政策时,仍须利用市场机制、把投资主动权交给企业,尽量保持政策的平稳和可预期性。

Theorists generally believe that the crisis that broke out in China’s photovoltaic industry from 2008 to 2011 was related to the government’s improper industrial promotion policies.However,the"Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry"issued by the State Council in 2013 and a series of subsequent supporting measures have effectively reversed the industrial crisis.In order to explore whether the government can improve its industrial regulation ability through"learning by doing",this paper uses the new energy automobile enterprises as the control group to analyze the impact of the new round of industrial regulation on the over-investment and innovation investment of the photovoltaic industry by using the DID method.The results show that the improved supply-side regulation can significantly inhibit the over-investment of the industry and promote the innovation investment of enterprises,but there are also disadvantages such as the solutions of old problems causing new problems,the overall cost of the industry being too high,and private enterprises being frustrated.When the government implements deeply-involved industrial policies,it still has to use market mechanisms and hand over the investment initiative to enterprises,and try to keep policies as stable and predictable as possible.