中日关系50年发展演变与未来走势——兼论日本战略因素及其规定性作用

The Development of China-Japan Relations in the Past Fifty Years and Its Future Trend:With Discussion upon Japan’s Strategic Role and Regulative Function

1972年中日邦交正常化扭转了中日关系的百年轨迹,推动长期“不正常”的中日关系重回正轨,揭开了历史新篇章。50年来中日关系的发展不仅造福于两国人民,也为亚洲及世界的和平、稳定与繁荣做出了重大贡献。50年来中日关系历尽坎坷、曲折前行,从力量对比到互动模式都有重大变化,是多元变量综合交叉作用的结果。其中,日本国家战略特别是对外战略、安全战略对中日关系的演变发展有着重要的规定性作用。在战后70多年的历史流变中,日本追求“大国化”的战略基因贯穿始终,经历了从“经济中心”导向到“政治大国”化目标导向的蜕变。50年来,伴随日本“政治大国”化目标的确立、内涵的发展、路径的更新,基于日本战略自主性上升的背景及战略转型的内在特征,日本战略因素对中日关系的规定性作用越来越直接、越来越明显,二者之间的同步同频度越来越高。从日本战略因素的角度观察,中日关系的政治安全性、战略竞争性进一步增强,又一次站在历史性选择的十字路口。

The normalization of China-Japan diplomatic ties in 1972 reversed the 100-year historical trajectory of China-Japan relations,having pushed the long-term "abnormal " China-Japan relations back to the right track andopening a new chapter in the history.The development of ChinaJapan relations over the past 50 years has not only benefited the two peoples,but also contributed significantly to peace,stability and prosperity of Asia and the world at large.Over the past 50 years,China-Japan relations have gone through many twists and turns with major changes from the balance of power to the mode of interaction,which is the result of the comprehensive interaction of multiple variables.Those variables of different levels and dimensions can be summarized into three aspects:the characteristics of China-Japan relations,factors of the two countries themselves,and the variables of the external environment.Among them,Japan’s national strategy,especially foreign strategy and security strategy,has played an important prescriptive role in the development of China-Japan relations.In the historical change of more than 70 years after WWII,the strategic gene of Japan’s pursuit of "becoming a great power" runs through the whole process,and it has transformed from the orientation of "becoming an economic great power" to the orientation of "becoming a political great power".Over the past 50 years,along with the establishment and implementation of Japan’s pursuit of becoming a pontifical great power target,and with the background of the rise in Japan’s strategic independence and the strategic transformation,Japanese strategic role in the of China-Japan relations become even more direct and obvious,and changes of Japan’ s role and China-Japan relations become simultaneous.From the perspective of Japan’s strategy,the political and security nature and strategic competitiveness of China-Japan relations have been further enhanced,and the bilateral relations have once again stood at the crossroads of the historical trajectory.