外部冲击、国际贸易与政策调节

External Shock,International Trade and Policy Adjustment

新冠肺炎疫情是当前世界面临的最主要的冲击,处于世纪疫情与百年变局的交织之际,阻断国际交流以遏制境外病源输入,还是加强区域间合作以缓解疫情下全球经济倒退,成为当前各国应对这一冲击的政策难题。区别于对疫情冲击的结果分析,本文以溯源为导向,考察了贸易对新冠肺炎疫情在国际传播的可能性影响,探究了贸易政策调节对该影响的弱化作用。研究表明,贸易是新冠肺炎疫情的传播途径之一,物流输送和人流扩散为病毒的传播提供了物质载体,一系列稳健性、内生性和异质性检验均验证了这一结果。进一步研究发现,削减对外商直接投资的高度依赖、降低出口市场的集中程度、优化出口产品结构和增强高技术产品的出口竞争力可以有效削弱贸易对疫情的扩散作用。本文为疫情溯源的相关研究厘清了传导路径,为疫情的全球防控提供了学术支撑,也为贸易政策的有效调节实现了科学验证。

At a time when a once-in-a-century pandemic is interlaced with changes unseen in the past century,blocking international exchanges to curb the import of the virus or strengthening regional cooperation to alleviate global economic recession under the pandemic situation has become a common policy choice facing all countries.Different from the analysis of the pandemic impact,this paper traces back to the source,and examines the possible impact of trade on the international spread of COVID-19,and how trade policy adjustment can weaken the impact.Research shows that trade is one of the virus transmission routes,and the flow of goods and people provides physical carriers for the spread of the virus.A series of robustness,endogeneity and heterogeneity tests verified this result.Further research shows that reducing the high dependence on foreign direct investment and the concentration of export markets,optimizing the export product mix and enhancing the export competitiveness of high-tech products can effectively reduce the impact of trade on the spread of the virus.The paper clarifies the virus transmission path for related research on origin tracing,provides academic support for global fight against COVID-19,and scientifically verifies the effect of trade policy adjustment.