基于改进粗糙集-云模型的炼化企业带压打孔作业风险评价

Risk Assessment of Drilling under Pressure in Refining and Chemical Enterprises based on the Improved RS-Cloud Model

炼化企业带压打孔作业技术要求高,且存在动火、起重、临时用电等多项高风险作业,极易发生事故。为了提高作业过程风险管控水平,依据国家相关标准,结合带压打孔作业风险特点,构建了4个一级指标,28个二级指标的风险评价体系;利用改进粗糙集(RS)理论来客观计算各级指标的权重;结合云模型(Cloud Model)理论处理评价过程中各种不确定、定性的信息,得到各级评价指标的特征值参数;利用MATLAB软件生成云模型图,展示同级指标的风险排序,并与风险等级标准云进行相似度对比,获得各级指标的风险等级。该方法可直观反映各作业环节的优势、薄弱指标,为强化优势指标、强攻弱势指标,更好地管控现场风险提供高效指导。

Refining and chemical enterprises have high technical requirements for drilling under pressure,and there are many high-risk operations such as hot fire,lifting,and temporary electricity use,which are extremely prone to accidents.In order to improve the level of risk management and control in the operation process,according to relevant national standards and combined with the risk characteristics of pressure drilling operations,a risk evaluation system with 4 first-level indicators and 28 second-level indicators has been constructed;the improved RS theory is used to objectively calculate all levels of indicators The weight of the index;combined with the Cloud Model theory to process various uncertain and qualitative information in the evaluation process,obtain the characteristic value parameters of the evaluation indicators at all levels,use MATLAB software to generate the cloud model diagram,display the risk ranking of the indicators at the same level,and compare the risk level.The standard cloud performs similarity comparison and obtains the risk levels of indicators at all levels.This method can directly reflect the strengths and weakness indicators of each operation link,and provide efficient guidance for strengthening the strength indicators,attacking the weakness indicators,and better managing and controlling on-site risks.