宏观经济波动与煤矿安全生产关系研究

Research on the relationship be tween macroeconomic fluctuation and coal mine safety production

为了进一步防范化解宏观经济波动带来的煤矿安全风险,提升我国煤炭行业的整体安全水平,围绕改革开放前后的11个经济周期,系统分析了宏观经济波动与煤炭消费量的关系,阐述了煤矿事故周期与经济周期性波动的关系,分析了历史上7个煤矿重特大事故高发期,提出了经济周期性波动对煤炭工业系统性影响;根据当前国内外经济形势,对未来5~10年国际经济形势及我国宏观经济进行预测,分析研判宏观经济下行带来的煤矿安全风险,从宏观层面提出风险防范的措施建议。

In order to further prevent and resolve the coal mine safety risks caused by macroeconomic fluctuations and improve the overall safety level of China’s coal industry,this paper systematically analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and coal consumption around the 11 economic cycles before and after the reform and opening up.It expounds on the relationship between the coal mine accident cycle and the periodic economic fluctuation,analyzes the seven periods of the high occurrence of major accidents in coal mines in history,and puts forward the systematic impact of the periodic economic fluctuation on the coal industry.According to the current domestic and international economic situation,this paper forecasts the international economic situation and China’s macro-economy in the next 5~10 years,analyzes the coal mine safety risks caused by the macro-economic downturn,and puts forward the measures and suggestions for risk prevention from the macro level.