基于有序联系度熵的水资源空间均衡综合评价方法

Ordered correlation degree entropy based approach for comprehensive evaluation analysis of water resource spatial equilibrium system

实现水资源空间均衡目标是当前我国水资源集成化管理实践的重要思路。为有效描述水资源空间均衡不同子系统及均衡指标之间的关系结构特征及整体均衡态势,提出从水资源承载压力、支撑力及调控力三大子系统之间的作用关系角度出发,采用集对分析三元联系数刻画不同均衡指标与相应承载等级之间的单指标联系属性,利用有序度熵与三元联系数耦合模型表征水资源空间均衡系统整体均衡态势及其变化趋势,并依据减法集对势诊断识别制约水资源空间均衡态势变化的关键影响因素,最终提出了基于有序联系度熵的水资源空间均衡综合评价方法(OCDE)。上述方法在安徽省不同地市2009—2018年水资源空间均衡综合评价的应用结果表明:皖南地区水资源空间均衡程度最高,皖中次之,皖北最差,全省2009—2018年水资源空间均衡系统整体均衡态势呈现逐渐改善的趋势,且人均水资源量和产水模数是制约全省及不同地市水资源空间均衡系统均衡态势变化最主要的负向驱动因素。上述计算结果与安徽省历史年份经济社会发展统计数据基本一致,表明构建的水资源空间均衡综合评价模型计算结果合理有效,可为制定和实施区域水资源空间均衡措施及方案提供科学有效的决策依据。

Currently, the implementation of water resource spatial equilibrium is a significant framework of water resource integrated management in China.In order to effectively describe the relationship structure characteristics and overall equilibrium situation between different equilibrium subsystems and indicators of water resource spatial equilibrium system, firstly, the connection number method was applied to quantify the single-index difference characteristics between different equilibrium indicators and carrying grades from the perspective of water resources carrying support, pressure and regulation forces, and the ordered degree entropy and connection number coupling model was also utilized to reveal the overall equilibrium situation and its evolution trend of water resource spatial equilibrium system.Then, the subtraction set pair potential method was applied to recognize the primary influencing factors which lead to the historical variation of water resource spatial equilibrium system.And eventually, the ordered correlation degree entropy based approach(OCDE) of water resource spatial equilibrium comprehensive evaluation analysis was proposed.The application results of OCDE model in water resource spatial equilibrium comprehensive evaluation analysis in Anhui Province, China, 2009-2018 indicated that, the overall spatial equilibrium condition in southern area of Anhui Province was the highest, followed by central Anhui Province, and the worst in northern Anhui Province, and the overall variation of water resource spatial equilibrium system in Anhui Province presented obvious improving trend during the historical years.Meanwhile, water resource availability per capita and water resource production modulus were the two most important negative driving factors which restricted the improving of water resources spatial equilibrium system in Anhui Province.The research findings are basically consistent with the actual observed data and statistics of socio-economy development in Anhui Province, indicating that the proposed OCDE model is reasonable and effective, which can provide valid theoretical basis for the implementation of regional water resource spatial equilibrium development strategies.