摘要
以跨界水问题突出的中亚咸海流域为例,对上下游国家进行了不同水资源策略下的无限次重复博弈分析,并进行参数分析验证其合理性。结果表明:无限次重复博弈可为破解跨界水合作困境提供有效出路。在无限次重复博弈中,不论采用何种博弈策略,耐心程度都是开展跨界水合作的基础。引入惩罚项的博弈策略,使得博弈双方达成合作的可能性更大;博弈双方重视未来利益且在一定约束机制的条件下,将倾向选择合作策略。突破跨界水治理困境、实现流域可持续发展需要流域国家从流域整体利益最大化角度提升互信、寻找共同利益交汇点和利益平衡点,必要时可通过流域机构进行协调并对双方行为进行约束。
The Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia where transboundary water problems are prominent has been chosen as an example,the infinite repeated game under different water resources strategies among upstream and downstream countries have been analyzed,and a parametric analysis has been carried out to verify its rationality.The results show that the infinite repeated game can provide an effective solution to the dilemma of transboundary water cooperation.In the infinite repetition game,regardless of the game strategy,the degree of patience is the basis for transboundary water cooperation.The game strategy of introducing penalty make it more likely that both parties to reach cooperation;both parties pay attention to future benefits and under certain constraints,will tend to choose a cooperative strategy.To break through the dilemma of transboundary water governance and realize the sustainable development of the basin,it is necessary for the basin countries to enhance mutual trust from the perspective of maximizing the overall interests of the basin,to find the intersection of common interests and balance of interests,and to coordinate and restrain the behavior of both parties through the basin institutions when necessary.
作者
郭利丹
吴玥葶
黄峰
井沛然
王浩轩
GUO Lidan;WU Yueting;HUANG Feng;JING Peiran;WANG Haoxuan(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;International River Research Centre,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《水利经济》
2022年第6期16-23,102,共9页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区寒旱区水资源与生态水利工程研究中心(院士专家工作站)合作研究项目(2020.E-002)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(B210204025,B210207007)。
关键词
跨界河流
水资源策略
跨界水合作
重复博弈
咸海流域
transboundary river
water resources strategy
transboundary water cooperation
repeated game
Aral Sea Basin