水资源约束对西北五省区农业发展的影响

Impact of water resources constraints on agricultural development in five northwest provinces based on quantity and quality considerations

基于资源约束理论,构建包含水量和水质两个维度的水资源综合水平评价指标体系,并建立阻尼模型分析2001—2019年西北五省区水资源量质综合水平对农业发展的约束影响。结果表明:在综合考虑水量和水质的情况下,样本期内西北五省区水资源综合水平呈波动上升趋势;与水资源数量单一约束相比,水资源量质综合水平对西北五省区农业发展的约束作用明显增大;从时间层面看,西北五省区水资源约束的阻尼系数波动变化特征显著;从空间层面看,西北五省区水资源约束存在空间集聚特征,约束强度呈先减小后增大的趋势。

Based on the resource constraint theory,an index system of water resources comprehensive level including water quantity and water quality was constructed,and a damping model was established to measure the constraint effect of water resources quantitative and qualitative comprehensive level on agricultural economic development in the five provinces of northwest China from 2001 to 2019.The results show that:Considering the water quantity and water quality,the comprehensive level of water resources in the five provinces in northwest China shows an upward trend of fluctuation during the sample period.Compared with the single constraint of water resources quantity,the constraint of water resources quantity and quality on agricultural economic development of the five provinces in northwest China is obviously greater.From the perspective of time,the damping coefficient of agricultural economic development constrained by water resources fluctuates significantly in northwest China.From the perspective of space,there is a spatial agglomeration characteristic of water resources constraint in northwest China,and the constraint intensity decreases first and then increases.