世界天然气产业形势与发展趋势

Current situation and development trend of world natural gas industry

天然气产业发展是促进能源消费结构由高碳化石能源为主体向无碳新能源为主体转变的桥梁和纽带,是实现第三次世界能源转型的关键。为加快我国天然气产业发展、构建新常态下安全、先进、高效的国家能源体系,在回顾世界天然气产业发展的基础上,站在能源体系转型的高度和历史发展的维度,从7大视角深刻剖析了世界天然气产业发展的动力,从4个方面全方位研判了世界天然气产业发展趋势。研究结果表明:①纵观世界天然气产业发展历程,天然气产业发展具有天然气自然属性、产业政策、上中下游的一体化协同三大驱动力;②世界能源体系形成“四分天下”的格局,天然气在能源结构中占比持续上升,大气田是世界天然气产量的基础和保障,天然气贸易呈现国际化、LNG与管道气均衡发展的形势,天然气在发电、工业燃料和城市燃气等终端消费领域用量持续上升;③“碳中和”与能源转型引领了世界天然气产业链全面发展,迎来天然气黄金发展期。结论认为,研究成果研判了世界天然气产业发展趋势,相关认识和建议不仅对我国天然气行业发展具有重要价值,而且对天然气在能源转型中作用的充分发挥具有指导意义。

The development of natural gas industry is the bridge and link to promote the transformation of energy consumption structure from high-carbon fossil energy to carbon-free new energy,and is the key to realizing the third world energy transition.In order to speed up the development of China's natural gas industry and establish a safe,advanced and efficient national energy system under the new normal,this paper reviews the development of world natural gas industry.Then,from the height of energy system transition and the dimension of history development,the driving force for the development of world natural gas industry is analyzed from 7 major perspectives,and the development trend of world natural gas industry is predicted from 4 aspects.And the following research results are obtained.First,reviewing the development process of world natural gas industry,the development of natural gas industry has three driving forces including the natural property of natural gas,the industry policy and the integrated collaboration of upper,middle and downstream.Second,the world energy system forms a pattern of"Tetrad Components Mode".The proportion of natural gas in energy structure increases gradually.Giant gas field is the basis and guarantee for the world natural gas production.Natural gas trade is internationalized and the development of LNG and pipeline gas is balanced.The consumption of natural gas in the field of power generation,industrial fuel,city gas and other terminal utilizations rises continuously.Third,carbon neutrality and energy transition lead the all-round development of world natural gas industry,and the golden development period of natural gas industry is coming.In conclusion,the research results analyze and judge the development trend of world natural gas industry.The relevant understandings and suggestions are of great value for the development of China's natural gas industry and are of guiding significance to give full play to natural gas in energy transition.