2022年东北亚局势:回顾与展望

The Situation of Northeast Asia in 2022:Review and Prospect

2022年,新冠肺炎疫情叠加俄乌冲突,百年未有之大变局加速演进,东北亚地区局势复杂交织。美国把中国确定为唯一竞争对手,对中国进行经济、外交、军事和科技全方位遏制与打压。中俄关系稳步发展,美俄关系似以不可逆的方式走向对抗与决裂。美日、美韩关系趋于紧密,中日“信任赤字”依旧居高不下,但双方一致表示有必要共同努力维护和平共处。中韩关系各领域发展依旧处于不平衡状态,但显露重回正轨趋势,朝鲜半岛紧张局势有增无减。RCEP的生效推动了中日韩三国的经贸合作,给东北亚地区经贸合作带来新气象。展望2023年,中美关系改善与中俄关系恶化都是小概率事件,但中日韩高层接触和对话有望增多,人员往来与人文交流有望逐渐恢复,相互关系出现的裂缝将在一定程度上得到修补,东北亚地区的紧张局势有望在一定程度上得到缓和。

In 2022,due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the unprecedented changes unseen in a century are accelerating,and the situation in Northeast Asia is intertwined with chaos.Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the U.S.has identified China as its only competitor and attempt to contain against China on all fronts economically,diplomatically,militarily and technologically.China-Russia relations are steadily developing,while U.S.-Russia relations seem to move toward confrontation and breakup in an irreversible manner.The U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK relations are getting closer.The“trust deficit”between China and Japan remains high,but both sides have agreed on the need to work together to maintain peaceful coexistence.Developments in different fields of China-ROK relations are still unbalanced.Yet there is a tendency to get back on track.The tension in Korean Peninsular is still increasing.The RCEP has come into force to promote economic and trade cooperation among China,Japan and ROK,bringing a new look in economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia.Looking ahead to 2023,it will be unlikely for China-U.S.relations to improve and for China-Russia relations to deteriorate,but high-level contacts and dialogues among China,Japan and ROK are expected to increase,and the cracks in mutual relations will be repaired to a certain extent as the people-to-people exchanges and humanistic exchanges affected by the epidemic will be gradually restored,and it is possible that the tensions in Northeast Asia will be eased to a certain extent.