大运河文化保护政策扩散的时空演进机理探究

Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Mechanism of the Diffusion of the Cultural Protection Policy of the Grand Canal

2015年—2021年,在大运河沿线城市,104份跨区域、长尺度、涉及面广的大运河文化保护政策快速创新扩散。运用政策文本分析法和GIS空间定量分析法,可以发现其时空演进机理。从时间维度看,大运河文化保护政策创新扩散近似“S”型曲线扩散模式,在三个不同阶段呈现了不同的扩散状态,存在“时速效应”。从空间维度看呈现出两方面的特征:一是政策创新扩散存在地域差异,政策发布数量上,在大运河沿线城市呈现出东多西少的“空间集聚效应”;二是政策创新扩散出现两极分化的近邻效应——大运河沿线东部城市形成了创新扩散的高水平集聚,大运河沿线西部城市的政策扩散呈现出低水平集聚。研究表明:在理论层面,用政策文本和GIS空间定量分析法可以丰富政策创新扩散方法、拓展应用场景,完善政策创新扩散理论;在实践层面,运用这两个方法可以探究政策创新扩散的现状和成因,并发现问题,有利于中央政府和地方政府有针对性地、整体性地推进政策创新扩散。

From 2015 to 2021,104 trans-regional,long scale and extensive Grand Canal cultural protection policies were rapidly innovated and diffused in cities along the Grand Canal.By using the policy text analysis method and GIS spatial quantitative analysis method,we can find out its spatio-temporal evolution mechanism.From the perspective of time dimension,the innovation diffusion of the Grand Canal cultural protection policy is similar to the"S"curve diffusion model,showing different diffusion states in three different stages,and a"speed effect".From the perspective of spatial dimension,there are two characteristics.First,there are regional differences in the diffusion of policy innovation.In terms of the number of policy releases,cities along the Grand Canal show a"spatial agglomeration effect",more in the east and less in the west.Second,the policy innovation diffusion has a polarized neighbor effect-the eastern cities along the Grand Canal have formed a high-level cluster of innovation diffusion,while the policy diffusion of the western cities along the Grand Canal have shown a low-level cluster.The research shows that:theoretically,policy text and GIS spatial quantitative analysis can enrich the methods of policy innovation diffusion,expand the application scenarios,and improve the theory of policy innovation diffusion.Practically,the use of these two methods can explore the current situation and causes of policy innovation diffusion,which is conducive to the central and local governments to promote policy innovation diffusion in a targeted and integrated way.