人口迁移对刑事犯罪的影响--基于户籍变迁视角的实证研究

The Impact of Migration on Crime:An Empirical Study Based on Hukou Relocation

本文采用1998—2017年省际面板数据研究人口迁移对刑事犯罪的影响机制,并对比分析总体迁移、省外正式迁移和省内正式迁移的犯罪差异性,运用最优广义矩估计方法解决公检法支出和人口迁移存在的内生性问题。实证研究发现:总体人口迁移与刑事犯罪之间不存在反向因果关系,但正式迁移的内生性十分显著,因而正式迁移人口更加关注迁入地社会治安状况;省外正式迁移显著推动犯罪率的上升,而省内正式迁移则对犯罪率无显著影响,并且同时期的总体迁移人口显著降低犯罪率。因此,本文认为迁移人口的收入双重性是导致这一现象的原因,相比纵向收入差距的改善,正式迁移人口更容易受到迁入地横向收入差距的影响。

Along with the gradual adjustment of population migration policy,a large number of labors have poured into developed regions from underdeveloped regions since the reform and opening up,which provided a solid labor foundation for the steady growth of economy in China.In the meantime,criminal offences are increasing year by year in China,and floating population is regarded as an important reason for the increase in crime.However,the data show that the migration rate is not consistent with or even diametrically opposed to the rate of criminal arrest per ten thousand people.Therefore,the relationship between migration and criminal offence is ambiguous.In addition,due to the strict household registration system,China's population migration has great heterogeneity in various aspects including education and job nature.Therefore,with indiscriminate research among all floating populations,we cannot fully capture the impact mechanism of migration on criminal offences,which will reduce the accuracy and pertinence of research conclusions.This paper uses the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2017 to study the impact mechanism of population migration on criminal offences.Based on the impact of overall migration on crime,this paper further compares the differences between formal migration and informal migration,and between formal migration outside the provincial region and formal migration within the provincial region.Specifically,this paper uses the optimal generalized method of moments estimation to solve the endogenous problem of public security expenditure and population migration.And the criminal arrest rate and criminal prosecution rate are used to measure the criminal crime rate,and the regression results are greatly robust.According to the research results,we can draw the following conclusions.There is no endogeneity in the overall migration model,but it is very significant in the formal migration model.Therefore,it can be inferred that formal migrants pay more attention to social security in the immigration region than informal migrants.Formal migration between provincial regions significantly contribute to the increase in crime rate.The empirical results show that with other factors unchanged,one thousandth increase in the formal migration rate between provincial regions is estimated to increase criminal arrest rate by 6.8%and the criminal prosecution rate by 4.2%.Formal migration within the provincial region has no significant impact on criminal rate,while the overall migrant population significantly reduces the crime rate during the same period.Therefore,it can be speculated that with other factors controlled,informal migration has no significant contribution to the increase in crime rate.This paper believes that the dual income property of migrants is the main contributor to this phenomenon.Informal migrants pay more attention to the improvement of vertical income gap,while formal migrants are more easily affected by horizontal income gap.Compared with the formal migration within the provincial region,the formal migration between provincial regions is more lacking in social support and social security in the destination region,thus increasing the possibility of profit-seeking through illegal means.This paper reveals the impact of population migration on criminal offence,which can help the government develop targeted and differentiated policies and measures to reduce crime of migrants,thus ensuring the harmonious development of society.