江西省旅游业碳达峰与碳中和研究

Research on carbon peak and neutralization of tourism in Jiangxi Province

旅游业“双碳”目标的达成已成为实现旅游业高质量发展的关键指标之一。本文以全国生态文明示范区江西省为研究对象,在测算旅游业碳排放与碳汇的基础上,利用STIRPAT模型和GM灰色预测模型,结合不同情景对旅游业碳达峰与碳中和展开预测。结果表明:(1)2000-2019年江西省旅游业碳排放、碳汇均呈现出增长态势,碳排放由前期平缓增长转为后期快速增长,碳汇则为持续平缓增长,20年间两者的年均变化率分别为21.09%和9.11%。(2)旅游业碳排放强度将对江西省旅游业碳达峰的实现产生重要影响,在基准情景、中等情景和低碳情景中,江西省实现旅游业碳达峰的时间差异较大,分别约为2035年、2030年和2025年。(3)预测江西省未来旅游业碳汇将呈现稳定增长趋势,在采取低碳情景的相关政策下,江西省旅游业能够在2060年之前实现碳中和。建议江西省旅游业从确保旅游碳减排和推进旅游生态化两方面采取措施,以顺利实现“双碳”目标。

The achievement of“dual-carbon”goals in tourism has become one of the key indicators of tourism high-quality development. In this paper, Jiangxi Province, a national demonstration area of ecological civilization, is taken as the research case. Based on the measurement of carbon emissions and carbon sinks of tourism industry, STIRPAT model and GM grey prediction model are used to predict the carbon peak and carbon neutralization of tourism industry in different scenarios. The results show that:(1) From 2000 to 2019, both carbon emissions and carbon sinks of tourism in Jiangxi displayed a growth trend. The carbon emissions changed from a slow growth at the early stage to a rapid growth at the late stage, and the carbon sinks continued to grow slowly. The average annual change rates of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the 20 years were 21.09% and 9.11%, respectively.(2) The intensity of tourism carbon emission will have an important impact on the realization of tourism carbon peak. In the benchmark scenario, the medium scenario and the low carbon scenario, the time reaching tourism carbon peak in Jiangxi is about 2035, 2030 and 2025, respectively, indicating the great divergence among the three scenarios.(3) It is predicted that the carbon sink of tourism in Jiangxi will remain a steady growth in the future. Under the relevant policies of lowcarbon scenarios, Jiangxi’s tourism can achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. It is suggested that the tourism industry should take measures to ensure the reduction of tourism carbon emissions and promote the ecologicalization of tourism to increase tourism carbon sinks in order to achieve the goal of“dual carbon”.