产业关联视角下中国住宿业碳排放结构路径研究

A structural path analysis on carbon emissions from the accommodation industry in China from the perspective of industrial linkage

识别中国住宿业碳排放增长路径,是应对气候变化、精准制定旅游减排政策的关键。本研究从产业关联的视角出发,采用环境投入产出和结构路径分析方法,探究1997-2017年中国住宿业碳排放演变特征与影响住宿业碳排放变动的关键路径。结果表明:(1)研究期间中国住宿业碳排放量波动增长,但排放强度持续下降,电力和热力消耗是住宿业碳排放最主要的能源消耗类型。(2)最终需求引致的直接住宿业碳排放对住宿业全部碳排放量贡献始终较大,但住宿业消费中间产品投入引致的隐含碳排放量逐渐增多。(3)从供应链路径来看,“(上游供应部门)→食品制造业→住宿业→最终需求”与“(上游供应部门)→电力、热力的生产和供应业→住宿业→最终需求”是驱动中国住宿业碳排放变动的主要路径类型,上游供应部门涉及农林牧渔、道路运输、化学工业等部门。实现住宿业低碳发展应实施“源头减量、过程控制、末端治理”的综合治理战略,优化住宿业的中间产品投入结构,引导住宿业传统供应链向绿色供应链转型。

Identifying the key paths that drive changes in carbon emissions of accommodation industry in China is conducive to formulating the targeted mitigation policies. From the perspective of industrial linkage, this study adopts an environmental input-output model and structural path analysis model to build a framework, which can be used to explore the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from the accommodation industry from 1997 to 2017 and further to excavate the key supply chain of carbon emissions changes. The results show that:(1) Carbon emission volume from the accommodation industry showed a fluctuating increase over the study period, but its intensity continues to decline, and electricity and heat consumption have become the most dominant type of energy consumption for the accommodation industry.(2) The first-order paths, i.e., direct carbon emissions caused by final demand, occupy an important position;the high-order path, which flows through more intermediate sectors, not only increases in number year by year but also generates gradually increasing emissions, which indicates that accommodation industry has a significant amount of embodied inter-sectoral carbon emissions by consuming intermediate products from other sectors.(3) “(Upstream supply sector) →food manufacturing industry→accommodation industry→final demand”and“(upstream supply sector)→production and supply of electricity and heat→accommodation industry→final demand”are the main types of key paths that affect accommodation industry’s carbon emissions, which involves upstream supply sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, road transport and chemical industry. To achieve low carbon development of the accommodation industry, a comprehensive management strategy of“source reduction, process control and end-of-pipe treatment”should be implemented, the input structure of intermediate products in the accommodation industry should be optimized, and the transformation from a traditional supply chain to a green supply chain of the accommodation industry should be encouraged.