基于事件树的科技信息服务机构创新供给能力评价研究

Evaluation of Innovation Supply Capacity of Science and Technology Information Service Institutions Based on Event Tree

【目的/意义】提高科技服务机构创新供给能力评价的指标合理度和结果准确率。【方法/过程】提出基于事件树的科技服务机构创新供给能力评价方法,通过事件树分析法从技术创新能力、经济效益、未来发展潜力、示范带动能力和产能利用状况五方面组建合理度较高的科技服务机构创新供给能力评价指标体系,采用网络分析法构建科技服务机构创新供给能力评价模型,实现科技服务机构创新供给能力的评价。【结果/结论】实验结果表明,所提方法选取的评价指标临界比率值、峰度系数和偏度系数都控制在合理的范围内,可以对科技服务机构创新供给能力进行有效评价。【创新/局限】本文提出基于事件树的科技服务机构创新供给能力评价方法,选取了合理性较高的评价指标,提高了评价结果的准确性,将有效推进区域经济的可持续发展。本文方法的局限性在于研究对象的全面性不足,未对具有一定代表性的行业性信息机构进行创新供给能力评价,评价结果存在一定偏向性。

【Purpose/significance】Improve the index rationality and result accuracy of the innovation supply capacity of scientific and technological service institutions.【Method/process】This paper puts forward the evaluation method of innovation supply capacity of science and technology service institutions based on event tree analysis,and establishes a highly reasonable evaluation index system of innovation supply capacity of science and technology service institutions from five aspects:technological innovation capacity,economic benefits,future development potential,demonstration driving capacity and capacity utilization.The evaluation model of innovation supply capacity of science and technology service institutions is constructed by using network analysis method to realize the evaluation of innovation supply capacity of science and technology service institutions.【Result/conclusion】The experimental results show that the critical ratio,kurtosis coefficient and skewness coefficient of the evaluation indexes selected by the proposed method are controlled within a reasonable range,and can effectively evaluate the innovation supply capacity of science and technology service institutions.【Innovation/limitation】This paper proposes an evaluation method of innovation supply capacity of science and technology service institutions based on event tree,selects reasonable evaluation indexes,improves the accuracy of evaluation results,and will effectively promote the sustainable development of regional economy.The limitation of this method lies in the lack of comprehensiveness of the research subjects,the failure to evaluate the innovative supply ability of some representative industrial information institutions,and the evaluation results are somewhat biased.