人口老龄化对产业消费“双升级”的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Population Aging on "Double Upgrade" of Industrial Consumption

推动产业结构和居民消费“双升级”,是实现高质量发展的重要内容,而人口老龄化趋势日益严峻,发挥好高等教育的调节作用是助力产业消费“双升级”、畅通国内大循环的重要举措之一。利用我国省级面板数据,对我国产业消费“双升级”水平进行测度,基于测度数据系统分析人口老龄化对产业消费“双升级”的影响,以及高等教育投入在其作用影响中可能存在的非线性门槛效应。研究表明:我国产业消费“双升级”的发展态势良好,但仍处于磨合阶段,产业升级相对滞后,产业升级与消费升级的协同发展能力仍需提升;人口老龄化对产业消费“双升级”起显著的促进作用;加大高等教育投入有助于增强人口老龄化对产业消费“双升级”的积极影响,且门槛效应的大小呈明显的区域性特征。因此,应补足供需失衡短板,助推产业与消费良性互促;大力发展老龄产业,完善老年社会保障制度;加大高等教育投入,实现教育均衡发展。

Promoting the "double upgrading" of industrial structure and consumer consumption is an essential part of achieving high-quality development.As the aging population is becoming increasingly severe,giving full play to the regulating role of higher education is one of the important measures to facilitate the "double upgrading" of industrial consumption and smooth the great domestic circulation.Based on the measure data,we systematically analyze the impact of population aging on the "double upgrading" of industrial consumption and the possible nonlinear threshold effect of higher education input in its effect.The research shows that the development trend of "double upgrading" of industrial consumption in China is well,but it is still in the run-in stage,the industrial upgrading is relatively backward.The synergistic development ability of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading still needs to be improved.Population aging plays a significant role in promoting the "double upgrading" of industrial consumption.Increasing investment in higher education helps to enhance the positive impact of population aging on the "double upgrading" of industrial consumption,and the size of the threshold effect shows obvious regional characteristics.Therefore,we should make up for the imbalance between supply and demand and promote the benign mutual promotion between industry and consumption.Vigorously develop the aging industry,improve the elderly social security system;We will increase investment in higher education and realize balanced development of education.