进口LNG与“煤价挂钩”定价机制的理论探究

Theoretical research on the pricing mechanism of China’s imported LNG linked to "coal price"

近年来,我国进口LNG量快速增长,LNG长协贸易定价机制以挂钩JCC为主并日益多元化,但进口贸易定价机制始终未能反映我国能源的真实需求。长期以来,我国能源结构以煤为主,近年来持续推进“煤改气”工程,寻求建立与国内煤价挂钩的进口LNG定价机制具有重要意义。本文参考国际LNG定价公式,从理论上设计与煤价挂钩的中国进口LNG定价公式,通过广泛调研、制定标杆煤价评选标准,筛选出能够反映我国煤炭市场供需的标杆煤价——郑州商品交易所动力煤期货,通过燃料热值转化、引入碳成本等参数变动及应用分析发现参数在一定范围内调整,可合理实现进口LNG价格与我国能源市场、碳市场的联动,挂钩煤价的公式具有一定理论参考价值。

In recent years,China’s annual import volume of LNG has grown rapidly.The long-term LNG contract is mainly linked to JCC and diversify gradually,but the contract has never been able to reflect China’s real energy demand.For China,it’s energy structure is dominated by coal,and the "coal-to-gas" project has been continuously promoted,which means it is significant if the long-term LNG contract can link to domestic coal prices.Referring to the international LNG pricing formula,this paper theoretically designs a LNG pricing formula which link to China’coal prices.Firstly through extensive research and formulation of benchmark-coal-price selection criteria,a benchmark-coal-price—Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange thermal coal futures,is screened out.Then through the conversion of fuel calorific value,this paper makes the scenario analysis,application analysis,the introduction of carbon cost and other parameter adjusting.Finally,it is found that if the parameters are adjusted within a range,which can reasonably realize the linkage between the price of imported LNG and China’s energy market and carbon market.The study offers theoretical reference value for new long-term LNG contract.