我国养老需求的潜在类别及影响因素分析——基于CLASS数据的实证研究

Analysis of Latent Class Model and Influencing Factors of China’s Pension Demand——An Empirical Study Based on CLASS Data

随着我国老龄化程度进一步加深,老年人养老需求也不断增加。使用2018年中国老年社会追踪调查数据,运用潜在类别模型可将老年人的养老需求分为高需求型、中需求型和低需求型,并从个人、家庭和社会三个方面分析影响老年人养老需求类型的因素。Logistic回归分析结果显示:年龄、健康状况、文化程度、婚姻状况、健在子女数和居住方式等因素都会影响老年人的养老需求,且城乡老年人养老需求也存在差别。因此,应完善老年人养老需求评估办法,满足老年人不同层次的养老需求;提高医疗服务质量和水平,更好地满足老年人的医疗需求;重视并支持家庭养老模式;优化城乡养老服务资源均衡配置,缩小城乡养老服务差距;加强老年人健康教育,引导其树立健康理念。

With an increasing number of elderly people,China is dealing with an increase in pension demand from the elderly.Based on the survey oriented to the elderly in China in 2018,this paper classifies the needs of the elderly into high-demand,medium-demand,and low-demand types with reference to individual,family,and social aspects,for further study.Based on logistic regression analysis,the paper firstly shows that the demands of the elderly are affected by age,health condition,marital status,degree of education,mode of living,and the number of surviving off-springs,then argues that discrepancies are obvious between urban and rural areas.Therefore,it is necessary to meet the needs of the elderly at different levels by improving the method of evaluating their needs,and providing better access to health care.Furthermore,it is critical to prioritize family pension modes,optimize resource allocation in urban and rural areas,and close the gap between urban and rural pension services.Last but not least,health education for the elderly must be strengthened to guide them in setting up a healthy concept.