长三角城市零碳发展评估分析

Zero-carbon Evaluation of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta

实现碳达峰、碳中和是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革。作为中国经济与金融发展的中心区域,长三角地区理应走在碳达峰、碳中和的前列。为了更好地评估长三角城市在实现碳达峰、碳中和过程中的现状,本文构建城市零碳发展评估指标体系,在经济人口、科技创新等5个维度上形成零碳发展评估框架,基于变异系数法确定指标权重结构,并将城市分为强脱钩组与其他组两个组别,对长三角41个城市的零碳发展水平进行了系统评价。评估结果表明,长三角41个城市间以及省际之间在零碳发展水平上的差异较为显著,同时,长三角城市经济发展与碳排放强脱钩前后各指标贡献率也呈现出明显差异。应充分利用长三角一体化协同效应,在现有基础上加快城市的碳达峰、碳中和进程。

Achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality has broadly and profoundly changed the social and economic system.The Yangtze River Delta,as the center of economic and financial development in China,should be at the forefront.To better gauge the process of cities in the Yangtze River Delta in reaching carbon neutrality,this paper constructs an index valuation system,the Zero-carbon index.The index covers indicators from 5 dimensions including Economy and Population and Scientific and Technological Innovation.The indicators are weighted using the coefficient of variation method.Additionally,the 41 cities are divided into 2 subgroups according to their eco-economic decoupling status.The 2 subgroups are then evaluated respectively and comparatively.Results show that the 41 cities display significant inter-city and inter-province differences,and that indicator contribution rates differ before and after a city reaches strong eco-economic decoupling.We suggest that China leverage the synergy of cities in the Yangtze River Delta to accelerate carbon emission peaking and reaching carbon neutrality.