人口老龄化、债务杠杆与居民消费

Population Aging,Debt Leverage and Household Consumption

人口老龄化与债务杠杆攀升是当前中国的两大经济现实。文章从理论上分析了人口老龄化及家庭负债对居民消费的影响,并利用2012、2014、2016、2018四期“中国家庭动态追踪调查数据”(CFPS)和普通最小二乘法进行了实证检验。结果表明,当前居民人口老龄化会显著抑制中国居民消费,但是家庭负债可以在一定程度上缓解老年人口增加对消费的负面影响。对消费进行分类别研究发现,人口老龄化会促进家庭医疗保健类消费支出,但会抑制其他种类消费支出;而家庭负债均会缓解其对消费的影响。机制分析发现,家庭经济状况和户主受教育水平增加均会促进人口老龄化和负债对消费的影响。异质性分析发现,家庭负债对人口老龄化与消费关系的调节作用在东部地区家庭、户主年龄小于50岁的中年组家庭及家庭认知水平较高的家庭中作用更强,且住房贷款比非住房贷款的调节作用更强。文章为认识人口老龄化、家庭负债与居民消费之间的关系提供了新视角,可以为未来政策制定提供参考。

The population aging and the rising level of household debt are widespread concerns in China.First,the influence of population aging and household debt on household consumption is discussed theoretically.Second,the 2012-2018 China Family Panel Studies data and Ordinary least squares are used to verify the relationship among these three variables.It is found that population aging will significantly inhibit China's household consumption,but household debt can mitigate this negative impact to some extent.After dividing household consumption into different categories,it is found that population aging will boost spending on health care and curb other kinds of consumer spending.And household indebtedness will alleviate its impact on consumption.Using mechanism analysis,it is found that both household economic status and household education level will promote the effect of population aging and household debt on consumption.Using heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the adjustment effect of household debt on the relationship between population aging and consumption is more substantial in the eastern region,middle-aged households with householders younger than 50 years old and households with higher family cognition.And housing loans have a stronger moderating effect than non-housing loans.This paper provides a new perspective on the relationship between population aging,household debt,and consumption,which can provide a reference for future policy formulation.