自由贸易协定缔结的影响因素研究:基于第三国效应的研究视角

Research on Influencing Factors of Free Trade Agreements:From the Perspective of Third-Country Effects

文章基于第三国效应的研究视角,利用WTO区域贸易协定数据库中2001~2018年108个经济体缔结的自由贸易协定面板数据,运用Chen和Joshi(2010)协定缔结概率分析框架以及Logit二元响应计量方法,从理论和实证两个方面就已有自由贸易协定的不同链接结构对未来各国缔结FTA的解释能力进行研究。研究发现,第三国效应对于后续FTA缔结具有较好的解释能力,且这种影响呈现出明显的差异性:相较于单一外部自由贸易协定结构,双外部自由贸易协定结构对两国缔结FTA的影响更大;在共同双外部自由贸易协定即两国均与共同第三国签署FTA的情形下,双方后续缔结FTA的概率会显著提高,但在不同双外部自由贸易协定,即两国均与其他第三国签署FTA的情形下,双方后续缔结FTA的概率会下降。文章还从国别类型和协定种类两个视角,探讨了已有外部FTA结构、经济因素、制度差异、文化联系和地缘关系对两国后续缔结FTA的差异化影响。此外,文章还延伸讨论了APEC成员间缔结FTA的动因、中国FTA的预测与战略选择,以及中、韩加入CPTPP的可行性。文章的研究为中国通过有效选择缔约伙伴和签约时点来积极参与区域贸易自由化进程提供了重要的实证支持与政策参考。

Based on the perspective of third-country effects, this paper theoretically and empirically studies the explanatory ability of the link structure of existing free trade agreements(FTAs) for countries to form FTAs with each other in the future. Using the panel FTAs data of 108 economies from 2001 to 2018 in the WTO Regional Trade Agreement Database, and applying Chen & Joshi analysis framework and the Logit regression method, we find that third-country effects have a good explanatory power for subsequent FTA formation. Compared with the single external FTA structure, the dual external FTA structures have a greater impact on the establishment of FTA between two countries. In the case of a common dual external FTA(both countries sign FTAs with common third countries), the probability of subsequent FTA formation between the two parties will be significantly increased.However, in the case of different dual external FTA(both countries have signed FTAs with other third countries), the probability of the two parties subsequently forming a FTA will be reduced. This paper also discusses the heterogeneous influence of existing external FTA structures, economic factors, institutional differences, cultural links and geographical relations on subsequent formation of the FTA between two countries from two perspectives of country types and agreement types. In addition, this paper further discusses the motivation of forming FTAs among APEC members, the prediction and strategic choice of China′s FTA and the feasibility of China and South Korea joining the CPTPP, which provides important empirical support and policy reference for China to actively participate in the process of regional trade liberalization by effectively choosing contracting partners and signing time.