京津冀公共服务水平区域差异及其人口效应研究

Regional Differences in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Public Service Level and its Impact on Population

借助统计数据和腾讯出行大数据等资料,采用熵权法、主成分法、Dagum基尼系数法对2010—2020年的京津冀公共服务水平进行分析测算,运用皮尔森相关分析、面板数据分析对其人口增减和流动的关联效应进行探索。研究表明:京津冀区域公共服务水平整体呈现出逐渐提升的态势,区域总体差异逐年缩小,但各地级市间的公共服务水平发展仍处于不平衡状态;区域公共服务水平基尼系数的收敛度逐年递减,表明各城市间的差异随时间推移逐渐缩小,存在σ收敛特征。京津冀常住人口空间集聚性呈现先升高再下降的倒U型趋势,城区人口规模较大的城市,公共服务水平相对较高。常住人口、市区人口规模对城市公共服务水平提升有正向影响,交通条件改善对人口规模影响显著,教育、医疗和环境资源与服务水平对人口的吸引作用不显著,城市公共服务水平对人口流动的引导作用有待提升。

Based on statistical data and Tencent travel data,entropy weight method,principal component method and Dagum Gini coefficient method,the public service level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2010 to 2020 is analyzed,and its effect on population growth and mobility is explored.The research shows that the public service situation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is gradually improving,but there are still large differences between different cities.The convergence degree of the Dagum Gini coefficient is on the decrease,indicating that the difference in the quality of public services between cities is gradually narrowing,and there is aσconvergence feature.The spatial agglomeration of resident population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei presents an inverted U-shaped trend,rising first and then falling.A city with a large population in the main urban area has a relatively high level of public services.The scale of permanent population and urban population has a positive impact on the improvement of urban public service level.In the opposite direction,the improvement of traffic conditions has a significant impact on the population size,education,medical and environmental resources,while service levels have no significant effect on population attraction,and urban public service levels have no obvious impact on population mobility,which needs to be further improved.