医院门诊量季节变化与趋势分析

Analysis on Seasonal Variation and Trend of Outpatient Volume

目的通过对医院总门诊量及各诊次进行动态分析,发现总门诊量及各分类门诊量变化趋势和季节性变化规律。方法采用时间序列季节指数分析法、移动平均趋势剔除法对某医院2015年1月1日-2020年12月31日共5940155例门诊人次分专家门诊、普通门诊、急诊及便民门诊进行统计分析。结果总门诊量呈现逐年增长趋势,通过移动平均趋势剔除法剔除趋势性影响,总门诊量、专家门诊及普通门诊第3季度季节指数最高,为门诊工作旺季,第1季度最低,为门诊工作淡季;便民门诊高峰期在第4季度,为110.52%,低谷期在第1季度,为89.53%;急诊患者季节性不明显。结论医院门诊量具有趋势性和季节性,医院管理者及门诊医师应合理安排医疗工作,优化资源配置,提升门诊的医疗水准和服务质量。

Objectives This study aims to analyze the volume and the flow rate of outpatients in order to investigate the trend and seasonal variation of the total number of outpatients and different types of outpatients.Methods Using time series seasonal index analysis method and moving average trend elimination method,this study statistically analyzed a total of 5940155 outpatient visits in a hospital from January 1,2015 to December 31,2020 based on the categories of expert outpatient department,general outpatient department,emergency department and convenience department.Results The outpatient volume increased year by year and the trend effect was eliminated by moving average trend elimination method.The seasonal index of total outpatient visits,expert outpatient clinics and general outpatient clinics were the highest in the third quarter of each year,which was the peak season of outpatient services,and the lowest in the first quarter,which was the off-season of outpatient services.The peak of convenient outpatient services was 110.52%in the fourth quarter,and the trough was 89.53%in the first quarter.The seasonality of emergency patients was not obvious.Conclusions The outpatient volume in hospitals is tendencious and seasonal,so hospital managers and outpatients should arrange medical work rationally,optimize resource allocation and improve the medical level and outpatient service quality.