基于区间变权模型的板集矿5煤层顶板突水危险性预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Roof Water Inrush Risk of No.5 Coal Seam in Banji Mine Based on Interval Variable Weight Model

为了合理、准确的评价和预测板集矿5煤层顶板突水危险性程度,选取了导水裂隙带高度、关键层厚度、含水层厚度、隔水层厚度、脆塑性岩厚度比、断层分维、断层交叉点与尖灭点密度7个因素作为主要评价指标,并基于ArcGIS平台,建立了5煤层顶板突水危险性区间变权模型。在模型构建中,为排除指标权重的主观性和计算复杂性,采用信息熵权求取了变权模型中的常权向量。为了防止“极大”和“极小”值权重值超调过大,改用保守型变权函数对各指标变权重进行了均衡调整。将本次构建的区间变权突水模型与常权模型进行比较,验证了区间变权模型对矿井煤层顶板突水预测效果更好。

In order to reasonablely and accurately evaluate and predict the plate roof water inrush risk degree of No.5 coal seam in Banji mine,selected the water fractured zone height,key layer thickness,the thickness of the aquifer,water-resisting layer thickness,brittle plastic rock thickness ratio,fractal dimension of faults,intersection and pinchout point density seven factors as the main evaluation index,and based on ArcGIS platform,the variable weight model of No.5 coal seam roof water inrush risk interval is established.In order to eliminate the subjectivity and complexity of index weight,the constant weight vector in the variable weight model is obtained by using information entropy weight.In order to prevent the "maximum" and "minimum" values from being too large,a conservative variable weight function is used to balance the variable weight of each index partition.Comparing the established interval variable weight water inrush model with the constant weight model,it is verified that the interval variable weight model has better prediction effect on coal seam roof water inrush.