摘要
针对CTCS-3列控车载系统在工作过程中故障的多态性、动态性及认知不确定性,提出GO-FLOW法分析复杂多态系统的动态可靠性。首先,以GO-FLOW法原理为基础,构建证据多态操作符解决元部件故障发生的认知不确定性问题,完成对复杂多态系统的不确定量化。其次,基于多状态部件的动态性,提出4个假设表明不同部件间的状态转移强度,并建立多态、动态可靠性计算模型,即证据GO-FLOW模型。最后,以CTCS-3列控车载系统为例,根据所建模型,对运行时间在100~500 h的系统工况进行可靠性分析,获得相关软件模拟可靠度随时间的变化情况。通过整理兰新客专2020年全年CTCS-3级列控车载系统现场维护数据,与可靠性分析结果进行对比。结果证明,该方法能够更好地分析认知不确定性和共有信号对多态、动态系统可靠性的影响。
Aiming at the problems of fault polymorphism,dynamics and cognitive uncertainty in the working process of CTCS-3 train control on-board system,an evidential GO-FLOW method is proposed to analyze the dynamic reliability of complex multi-state system.Firstly,based on the principle of GO-FLOW method,an evidence polymorphism operator is constructed to solve the cognitive uncertainty of component failure,and complete the uncertainty quantification of complex polymorphism system.Secondly,based on the dynamics of multi state components,four hypotheses are proposed to show the state transition strength between different components,and a multi-state and dynamic reliability calculation model,namely evidence GO-FLOW model,is established.Finally,taking CTCS-3 train control on-board system as an example,according to the established model,the reliability of the system working condition with operation time of 100~500 h is analyzed,and the change of reliability simulated by relevant software with time is remembered.By sorting out the field maintenance data of CTCS-3 train control on-board system of Lanxin passenger dedicated line in 2020,and comparing with the reliability analysis results,the results show that this method can better analyze the impact of cognitive uncertainty and common signals on the reliability of polymorphic and dynamic systems.
作者
齐金平
李少雄
王康
薛康
QI Jinping;LI Shaoxiong;WANG Kang;XUE Kang(Mechatronics T&R Institute,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Engineering Technology Center for Informatization of Logistics&Transport Equipment,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Logistics&Transport Equipment,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《实验室研究与探索》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第9期39-44,共6页
Research and Exploration In Laboratory
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71861021)。
关键词
列控车载系统
多态、动态可靠性分析
认知不确定性
共有信号
train control on-board system
multi-state and dynamic reliability model analysis
cognitive uncertainty
common signal