惠州市气温与湿疹门诊人次关联的时间序列研究

A time-series study on the association of ambient temperature with daily outpatient visits of eczema in Huizhou city

目的探讨惠州市气温对湿疹门诊人次的影响。方法从惠州市皮肤病防治所收集2016年1月1日至2019年12月31日湿疹门诊数据, 同期气象因素(日均气温、相对湿度)数据源自广东省气候中心的86个气象站点。采用分布滞后非线性模型评估环境温度暴露对湿疹的滞后效应, 采用自然平滑样条函数控制湿度的非线性混杂。结果惠州市皮肤病防治所4年内共报告湿疹门诊254 053人次, 日均就诊173.89人次。日均气温与湿疹日就诊人次呈"U"型关联。低温段温度每降低1 ℃, 湿疹发病风险上升2.20%(1.19%~3.21%), 高温段温度每升高1 ℃, 湿疹发病风险上升2.35%(1.24%~3.5%)。全人群中有1.60%(0.44%~2.68%)的湿疹门诊次归因于低温天气, 即归因人次为4 065(1 128~6 798);6.33%(1.40%~10.87%)的湿疹门诊人次归因于高温天气, 即归因人次为16 082(3 557~27 616)。结论高温和低温暴露均与湿疹就诊风险增加有关。

Objective To explore the impact of environmental temperature exposure on eczema visits.Methods Eczema clinic data from January 1,2016 to December 31,2019 were collected from the Huizhou Dermatology Hospital,and data on meteorological factors(average daily temperature and relative humidity)for the same period were derived from 86 meteorological stations of the Guangdong Provincial Climate Center.A distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to assess the lagged effect of environmental temperature exposure on eczema,and a natural smooth spline function was used to control the nonlinear confounding of humidity.Results There were 254053 eczema outpatient visits at the Huizhou Dermatology Hospital within four years,with an average of 173.89 visits per day.The relationship between daily average temperature and the number of visits was non-linear(U shape).The risk of eczema increased by 2.20%(1.19%-3.21%)for every 1℃decrease for the low temperature,and increased by 2.35%(1.24%-3.5%)for every 1℃increase for the high temperature.The effect of high temperature was greater than that of low temperature.In all cases,1.60%(0.44%-2.68%)of eczema outpatient visits were attributed to low temperature and the attributable number was 4065(1128-6798),while 6.33%(1.40%-10.87%)of eczema outpatient visits were due to high temperature and the attributable number was 16082(3557-27616).Conclusion Both high temperature and low temperature are associated with increased risk of eczema.