甘肃省兰州市和天水市干旱与0~6岁儿童腹泻门诊量的关联分析

orrelation analysis between drought and outpatient visits for diarrhea in children aged 0-6 in Lanzhou city and Tianshui city, Gansu Province

本研究收集了2014年1月1日—2018年12月31日甘肃省妇幼保健院和2015年1月1日—2018年12月31日天水市第一医院儿童腹泻病门诊数据, 以标准化降水指数(SPI)和气象干旱综合指数(MCI)作为干旱指标, 采用quasi-Poisson分布广义相加模型分析干旱与儿童腹泻门诊量的关联情况。研究期间, 兰州市和天水市干旱天数依据SPI-1分别为298和379 d, 依据MCI分别为303和398 d;甘肃省妇幼保健院和天水市第一医院0~6岁儿童腹泻门诊量分别57 147和18 703例。基于月降水量的SPI(SPI-1)和MCI与儿童腹泻门诊量呈负相关。与非干旱时期相比, 依据SPI-1划分, 中旱与儿童腹泻病门诊量关联性最强, 兰州市和天水市儿童腹泻病门诊量分别增加了13.4%(95%CI:7.9%~19.3%)和20.0%(95%CI:12.7%~27.8%);依据MCI划分, 特旱导致天水儿童腹泻门诊量增加60.5%(95%CI:3.4%~149.0%)。

In this study,the data of pediatric diarrhea clinic of Gansu Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 1,2014 to December 31,2018 and Tianshui First Hospital from January 1,2015 to December 31,2018 were collected.Standardized precipitation index(SPI)and meteorological drought composite index(MCI)were used as drought indicators.Quasi-Poisson generalized additive model was used to analyze the correlation between drought and pediatric diarrhea outpatient visits.During the study period,the dry days in Lanzhou city and Tianshui city were 298 and 379 days according to SPI-1,303 and 398 days according to MCI,respectively.There were 57147 and 18703 cases of diarrhea in children aged 0-6 years in Gansu Provincial Maternal and Child Health Hospital and Tianshui First Hospital,respectively.MCI and SPI(SPI-1)based on monthly precipitation were negatively correlated with the number of pediatric diarrhea outpatients.Compared with the non-drought period,SPI-1 showed the strongest correlation between middle drought and pediatric diarrhea outpatients,with an increase of 13.4%(95%CI:7.9%-19.3%)and 20.0%(95%CI:12.7%-27.8%)in Lanzhou city and Tianshui city,respectively.According to MCI,the outpatients with diarrhea in Tianshui children increased by 60.5%(95%CI:3.4%-149.0%)due to extreme drought.