气象因素对黄河流域地区居民电力需求的空间效应影响

Research of the spatial effect of meteorological factors on residents’power demand in the Yellow River Basin

为厘清气象因素对黄河流域地区居民电力需求的影响机理,优化上中下游地区电力空间布局,基于2006—2019年黄河流域61个城市的面板数据,采用空间杜宾模型研究平均温度、降水量、相对湿度、平均风速和日照时数对居民电力需求的空间效应影响。结果显示:在考察期内,莫兰指数由0.104提高至0.317,上中下游地区居民电力需求分别表现为低低、高低、高高集聚;平均温度和相对湿度每增加1%,上游相邻地区居民用电量分别减少0.307%和0.047%,相对湿度和平均风速每增加1%,中游相邻地区居民用电量分别增加0.068%和0.711%,平均风速和日照时数每增加1%,下游相邻地区居民用电量分别减少0.328%和增加0.001%。由此得出黄河流域居民电力需求空间集聚现象增强,平均温度、相对湿度对上游地区居民电力需求存在显著负向空间效应,相对湿度和平均风速对中游地区居民电力需求具有显著负向空间效应,平均风速和日照时数对下游地区居民电力需求具有显著负向和正向空间效应。

In order to clarify the action mechanism of meteorological factors on the power demand of residents and optimize the spatial distribution of power in the Yellow River Basin,the spatial effects of average temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,average wind speed and sunshine hours on Residents’power demand are examined by adopting the spatial Durbin model,based on the panel data of 61 cities from 2006 to 2019.The results show:during the study period,the Moran index increased from 0.104 to 0.317,the residents’power demand mainly showed low-low,high-low,high-high agglomeration in the upstream,middle and downstream regions;the average temperature and relative humidity increased by 1%,and the residential power consumption will decrease by 0.307%and 0.047%in the upstream adjacent areas respectively;for every 1%increase in relative humidity and average wind speed,the electricity consumption of residents would increase by 0.068%and 0.711%in the middle adjacent reaches respectively;for every 1%increase in average wind speed and sunshine hours,the electricity consumption of residents would decrease by 0.328%and increase by 0.001%in lower adjacent areas respectively.The conclusion is that there is a significant spatial agglomeration of residential power demand,the average temperature and relative humidity have a negative spatial effect on the upstream area,the relative humidity and average wind speed have a negative spatial effect on the middle reaches,and the average wind speed and sunshine hours have significant negative and positive spatial effects on the downstream area,respectively.