基于Grey-DEMATEL-ISM方法的高速铁路现场作业人的不安全行为分析

Analysis of People’s Unsafe Behavior during High Speed Railway Operation Based on Grey-DEMATEL-ISM Method

针对高速铁路安全风险,通过分析铁路局集团公司日常安全问题检查记录,结合过往高速铁路安全事故的诱因,从设备养护维修、行车和客运人员作业及日常安全管理3个方面,提出14项高速铁路作业过程中人的不安全行为项点,作为影响高速铁路作业安全的人为因素分析的基础。联合DEMATEL法及ISM法,分析各项不安全行为间的影响关系及作用路径,引入灰数理论,降低专家在进行关联关系评估中存在的不准确性,构建Grey-DEMATEL-ISM集成方法,以此分析人的不安全行为对于高速铁路作业过程的影响情况。通过对各项人的不安全行为进行分层研究,发现各项点间存在着复杂的影响关系,其中加强对规章制度的制修订管理、提升人员培训水平和技术管理是降低人为因素对铁路作业安全影响的根本方法,为高速铁路日常安全管理提供决策支撑。

In view of the safety risk on high speed railway, this paper analyzed the inspection records of daily safety problems of Railway Group and the inducement of past safety accidents on the railway. Then, it proposed 14 human unsafe behavior factors during the high speed railway operation as the basis of analysis. The factors include three aspects: equipment maintenance and repair risk, operation risk of driving and passenger transport personnel, and daily safety management risk. Combined with the DEMATEL method and the ISM method, the paper analyzed the influence relationship and action paths among various factors and introduced the grey number theory to reduce the uncertainty of experts in the correlation relationship evaluation. Then, it constructed a grey DEMATEL-ISM integration method to analyze the influence of unsafe behavior on high speed railway operation. Hierarchical research on human unsafe behavior factors shows that there are complex influence relationships among the factors. Improving the formulation and revision of rules and regulation and elevating personnel training level and technical management can fundamentally reduce human risk and provide decision-making support for the daily safety management of high speed railway.