政策支持、环保压力与新能源汽车推广——基于空间杜宾模型的31省市面板数据分析

Policy Support,Environmental Pressure and the Promotion of NEV——Analysis of 31 Provinces Panel Data Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

近几年,新能源汽车推广在财政补贴、交通优惠、政府采购等政策支持下经历了快速扩张。政策支持对新能源汽车推广起着显著的促进作用,但其作用的发挥也受到环保压力的影响。为理解地方政府推广新能源汽车的政策行为,本文以环保压力为调节变量,使用我国内陆31省市2016—2019年面板数据,在经济地理距离空间权重矩阵下建立空间杜宾模型。研究发现:(1)31省市新能源汽车推广水平存在空间溢出效应;(2)各省市基础设施建设不平衡,区域差异较大;(3)环保压力相近的临近省市会采用类似的政策工具组合推广新能源汽车。为此,本文建议推进跨区域的新能源汽车推广应用方案,要发挥区域协同效应;要将政策支持由推广转向基础设施建设,提升新能源汽车使用便利性;要重视环保压力影响,合理组合政策工具。

In recent years,the promotion of new energy vehicles(NEV) has experienced rapid expansion under the support of financial subsidies,transportation concessions,government procurement and other policies.Policy support plays a significant role in the promotion of NEV,but its role is also affected by environmental pressures. In order to understand the policy behavior of local governments to promote NEV,with environmental protection pressure as the moderating variable,by using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2016 to 2019,a spatial Durbin model is established under the spatial weight matrix of economic geographic distance. The study found that:(1) there is a spatial spillover effect in the promotion level of NEV in 31provinces and cities;(2) the infrastructure construction in various provinces and cities is unbalanced,and the regional differences are large;(3) neighboring provinces and cities with similar environmental protection pressures will adopt similar policies to promote NEV. To this end,it’s suggested to promote cross-regional new energy vehicle promotion and application programs to give full play to regional synergies;policy support should be shifted from promotion to infrastructure construction to improving the convenience of new energy vehicles;paying attention to the impact of environmental protection pressures,and rationally combining policy tools are needed.